While playing with XVM win percentage turned on, I find it's only roughly 65% accurate, which isn't very high, and most players know not to rely on the win percentage given. Now this takes into account that when a probability of say 66% win chance is given, that doesn't mean a for sure win, it means you should win 2 out of 3 matches set up exactly the same way. Sometimes the formula over calculates the percentage, and sometimes it under calculates the percentage.
I'm a mathematician, and I took a look at how the win percentage is calculated and found that the formulas used are not based on any accepted statistical models. It appears that the formula has been adjusted and tweaked based on it's performance to adjust the values in a desired way. You can eventually dial in that way, but it would literally take thousands of changes and optimizations to do so to become very accurate.
What I am proposing is that I can derive a true and sound mathematical formula based on accepted mathematical procedures that would boost the accuracy up to 90% to 95%. But, what I need is data, and lots of it. At least 10,000 battles worth, and preferably more than that (as much as is available).
The data that I need for each game:
1. Which team won
2. Individual vehicle names, separated by teams (for armor, dpm, hp, etc.)
3. Player stats for each vehicle (I don't want player names, but I do need their stats: such as RECENT WN8, vehicle efficiency, win rate, vehicle win rate, average damage, average tier, etc.)
4. Any other data that you think might be relevant
I understand that this data may not be stored and therefore not available to run statistical analysis on. I also understand that if the data is available, that you might not want to give it to me anyways for privacy reasons. I'm just offering that if anyone has this data available, or can gather the data in future battles, I can give XVM an accurate win percentage formula.
I need the data to be organized in a form that Microsoft Excel can import.
