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sirmax

[Формула расчета шансов на победу / Chance to win formula] Архив

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Новая тема: http://www.koreanrandom.com/forum/topic/2598-new-chance-to-win-formula-%D1%84%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%BC%D1%83%D0%BB%D0%B0-%D1%80%D0%B0%D1%81%D1%87%D0%B5%D1%82%D0%B0-%D1%88%D0%B0%D0%BD%D1%81%D0%BE%D0%B2-%D0%BD%D0%B0-%D0%BF%D0%BE%D0%B1%D0%B5%D0%B4%D1%83-%D0%BE%D0%B1%D1%81%D1%83%D0%B6%D0%B4%D0%B5/

 

Архив:

Current formulas (текущие формулы):
1. Global (общая):

Td = (Tmax + Tmin) / 2 - T
if B < 10000, Bn = (B - 2000) / 10000
else Bn = 0.8 + (B - 10000) / 100000
K = E * (1 + Rg - AVG_GWR) * (1 + 0.25 * Td) * (1 + Bn)
Ka = sum(K_ally)
Ke = sum(K_enemy)
W = Ka / (Ka + Ke) * 100%
P = 50% + (W - 50%) * 5
1) if P > 95% then Р = 95%
2) if P < 5% then P = 5%


2. Per-vehicle (по танку):

 

Td = (Tmax + Tmin) / 2 - T
K = E * (1 + Rt - AVG_GWR) * (1 + 0.25 * Td)
Ka = sum(K_ally)
Ke = sum(K_enemy)
W = Ka / (Ka + Ke) * 100%
P = 50% + (W - 50%) * 5
1) if P > 95% then Р = 95%
2) if P < 5% then P = 5%

English description


T - current battle tier
Tmin - min battle tier of current tank
Tmax - max battle tier of current tank
Td - battle tier difference for player's current tank
E - efficiency of player
Rg - global win rate of player
Rt - win rate of player for current tank
AVG_GWR = 0.48 (48%)
B - total number of battles of player
Bn - normalized number of battles of player
K - effectiveness of player calculated by efficienecy, winrate, battles played and tier
Ka - sum of calculated K for all allies
Ke - sum of calculated K for all enemies
W - win rate
P - final shown win percent
Battle tiers table for 0.8.0:
post-5504-0-45554800-1350908561_thumb.png
* Chance to win works only in battles with number of allies = number of enemies.
* For players without stats used average server value.


Русское описание

T - уровень текущего боя (вычисленный по составу команд)
Tmin - минимальный уровень боя для танка
Tmax - максимальный уровень боя для танка
Td - разница между уровнем текущего боя и средним уровнем боев данного танка
E - общая эффективность игрока
Rg - общий рейтинг игрока
Rt - рейтинг игрока по танку
B - общее кол-во боев игрока
Bn - нормализованное общее кол-во боев игрока
K - эффективность игрока в текущем бою
Ka - эффективность всей команды союзников в текущем бою
Ke - эффективность всей команды противников в текущем бою
W - вероятность победы союзников
P - итоговый отображаемый процент победы
Таблица уровня боев для 0.8.0:
post-5504-0-45554800-1350908561_thumb.png
* Расчет шансов работает только в боях, где количество союзников равно количеству противников.
* Для всех игроков без статистики используется средний общесерверный показатель.

Рассматриваемые методы:
1. автор - Hennek
2. автор - santass

Ссылка на таблицу уровня боев на официальном форуме: Балансировщик и уровни боёв

Принимаются предложения по развитию идеи.
Сообщения не по теме будут удаляться без предупреждения!

Edited by sirmax
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1) Обозначу старую проблему подсчета шансов.

Скриншот в атаче. Кто победил в бою пояснять, думаю, не надо. Даже на карте хорошей для светляков, наверно, такой процент был бы все равно неактуален хоть сколь-нибудь.

 

2) "Шансы на победу: Общий: 63%, По технике: 79%"

Что такое По технике и чем оно отличается от Общий непонятно никому, крому авторов формул.

 

Поэтому предлагаю перетекстоваться в что-то вроде

Шансы на победу: формула - 1: 63%, формула - 2: 79%

или

Шансы на победу: H-формула - 1: 63%, s-формула - 2: 79%

по первой букве от имени разработчика.

Edited by XlebniDizele4ku

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Уважаемые разработчики, предлагаю свою помощь для создания более точной формулы для расчета шанса на победу используя машинное обучение (в частности нейронные сети).

Есть небольшой опыт в создании и настройки нейронных сетей для решения различных задач классификации. Если вам данное предложение интересно свяжитесь со мной либо через личное сообщение либо через e-mail для дальнейшего обсуждения!

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Если вам данное предложение интересно свяжитесь со мной либо через личное сообщение либо через e-mail для дальнейшего обсуждения!

 

К чему такая скрытность? XVM - открытый продукт. Расскажите всем подробнее о том, что конкретно вы предлагаете.

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я просто не знал про открытость и т.д. =)

Предлагаю создать нейронную сеть для расчета шанса на победу

Для этого нужны примеры боев:

В качестве исходных данных можно использовать например рейтинг эффективности, общее количество боев и процент побед, а также количество боев на технике на которой играет игрок в данном бою, процент на данной технике, и конечно результат боя.

С этими примерами обучается нейронная сеть для предсказания шанса на победу.

Сразу скажу что не являюсь экспертом в данной области но некий опыт есть и могу попробовать такое сделать если у вас такие данные есть, или есть возможность их каким либо образом собрать.

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Что такое По технике и чем оно отличается от Общий непонятно никому, крому авторов формул.

Честно. Предполагал, что "По технике", это конкретно по моему танку :)

И сначала "Общий" был всегда выше чем по "По технике".

Но потом когда я стал кататься тока на одном танке (М18, понравилась мне ведьма), ну и "опытней" стал играть на ней, нередко "По технике" стал выше чем "Общий", я рассуждаю так:

Значит шанс выжить и внести свой вклад в победу у меня выше чем в среднем по команде.

И как следствие из выше написанного от меня, "моей игры", в большей степени зависит и победа команды.

Во как задвинул.

З.Ы. Надеюсь понятно объяснил, а то у мну с этим проблемы последнее время. :)

Edited by NikolayHAOS

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я просто не знал про открытость и т.д. =)

Предлагаю создать нейронную сеть для расчета шанса на победу

Для этого нужны примеры боев:

В качестве исходных данных можно использовать например рейтинг эффективности, общее количество боев и процент побед, а также количество боев на технике на которой играет игрок в данном бою, процент на данной технике, и конечно результат боя.

С этими примерами обучается нейронная сеть для предсказания шанса на победу.

Сразу скажу что не являюсь экспертом в данной области но некий опыт есть и могу попробовать такое сделать если у вас такие данные есть, или есть возможность их каким либо образом собрать.

1. WG предоставляет такие данные: http://worldoftanks....nofficial_stats

Они у нас есть в БД на сервере.

 

2. xvm-stat может писать в лог xvm-stat.log статистику боев:

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но для ее анализа ее сначала надо как-то собирать с игроков

 

отталкиваться нужно от этого

 

 

В качестве исходных данных можно использовать например рейтинг эффективности, общее количество боев и процент побед, а также количество боев на технике на которой играет игрок в данном бою, процент на данной технике, и конечно результат боя.

рейтинг эффективности не стоит использовать, необходимо отталкиваться от "чистых" данных, а не предрассчитанных.

еще одно необходимое условие - финальная формула должна считаться на клиенте, чтобы не делать еще один дополнительный сервис.

Edited by sirmax

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2. xvm-stat может писать в лог xvm-stat.log статистику боев:

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1353506136599:results:{"b":[{"ai":1453,"ac":5,"ag":15,"ae":1153,"z":1,"ab":270,"x":8,"y":5,"i":"-KMV-","k":82969160,"v":135,"r":0,"s":0,"p":"0,90 км","q":0,"w":14,"t":2,"u":2,"h":false,"aj":1809,"ah":12149,"n":449,"o":false,"l":0,"m":0,"b":82969142,"c":5291776,"ad":0,"af":316,"f":"Hetzer","g":0,"d":"akaSEMEN777","e":1},{"ai":3917,"ac":1,"ag":7,"ae":347,"z":2,"ab":640,"x":2,"y":2,"i":"","k":82969160,"v":304,"r":0,"s":0,"p":"0,53 км","q":1,"w":2,"t":0,"u":0,"h":false,"aj":11777,"ah":9191,"n":89,"o":false,"l":0,"m":0,"b":82969144,"c":6168707,"ad":0,"af":148,"f":"КВ-1","g":0,"d":"nike1415","e":1},{"ai":1135,"ac":3,"ag":6,"ae":324,"z":2,"ab":160,"x":1,"y":1,"i":"T34RU","k":82969167,"v":0,"r":0,"s":0,"p":"0,14 км","q":0,"w":9,"t":1,"u":1,"h":false,"aj":3393,"ah":3767,"n":309,"o":false,"l":0,"m":0,"b":82969146,"c":4482950,"ad":0,"af":124,"f":"Lorraine39 L 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но для ее анализа ее сначала надо как-то собирать с игроков

 

А не проще и эффективнее распарсить и обработать пару тысяч реплеев, взяв их из открытого источника? Там и игроки и результат: все необходимые данные для анализа.

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А не проще и эффективнее распарсить и обработать пару тысяч реплеев, взяв их из открытого источника? Там и игроки и результат: все необходимые данные для анализа.

Можно. Но есть две проблемы:

1. Кто этим займется?

2. В открытых источниках обычно публикуются необычные реплеи, поэтому выборка будет не репрезентативной. Нужны самые заурядные бои.

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Дык самых то заурядных у каждого на компе- пруд пруди:)

Edited by demon2597

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И все же, лучшим материалом для исследования является dossier_cache...

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2. xvm-stat может писать в лог xvm-stat.log статистику боев:

Можно объяснить что именно там написано, с setup и chance почти разобрался а вот result не понятен.

И подтвердите правильно ли я понял setup

в нем по очереди (кстати по какому принципу они сортируются?) данные всех 30-ти игроков.

 

{"b":1,"c": 1 или 2 в зависимости от команды

{"tl":6, уровень танка

"vn":"SU-100", название танка

"tf":0, ???

"r":50, общий процент побед

"td":0, ???

"tb":63, количество боев на танке

"w":2527, общее количество побед

"id":6260143, игровое id

"b":5021, общее количество боев

"tw":37, количество побед на танке

"clan":"", название клана ("" - игрок не состоит в клане)

"ts":0, ???

"tr":56, ???

"name":"INSI74", ник игрока

"e":1100}, общая эффективность игрока

"a":6260143, игровое id

"f":"", ???

"d":"SU-100", название танка

"e":"INSI74"}, ник игрока

 

??? - те параметры которые я не понял

вопрос, с какой целью повторяются в конце три параметра "a", "f" и "e", причем выше e была эффективность а потом ник.

 

в chance соответственно общий шанс и шанс по технике.

 

results я не понимаю,

 

и еще вопрос - что обозначают эти цифры? какая-то привязка ко времени в момент записи в лог?

1353505548913:setup:

1353505549170:chance:

1353506136599:results:

 

 

Про использования "чистых" данных, да согласен, но все будет зависит от скорости расчета, я не могу сказать точно сколько времени займет расчет шанса на победу, Чем больше исходных данных, естественно тем дольше. Будет ли это 1 и 2 секунды соответственно или 10 секунд и минута - большая разница.

В итоге кстати получится не совсем формула, а скорее несколько, которых нужно последовательно просчитать, это не является проблемой?

Edited by skyflash88

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не, так дело не пойдет, чтобы ответить на твои вопросы нужно потратить уйму времени, причем начинать необходимо с базовых понятий, вроде JSON и unixtime.

даже не знаю что делать, сейчас нет ни времени, ни желания за это браться.

 

В итоге кстати получится не совсем формула, а скорее несколько, которых нужно последовательно просчитать, это не является проблемой?

Скорей всего будет проблемой, так как считаться должно на клиенте. Сложные расчеты во Flash не так просто сделать. Тем более что большие объемы данных на клиент мы передавать не будем.

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зачем мне объяснять про JSON и unixtime? насколько я понял в лог идет массив данных для всех игроков название переменной-значение, мне просто нужно знать что обозначают эти переменные, а данные я уже сам нибудь обработаю.

 

Про передачу данных:

Насколько я сейчас понимаю сейчас расчет шансов на победу проводится локально по формулам которые описаны в первом топике.

В случае если у меня все получится то формулы будут посложнее.

В лучшем случае:

30 раз нужно будет просчитать функцию вида f(t)=1/(1+exp(-t)), где t=A1X1+A2X2+...+AnXn) и еще 2 раза где t=A1Y1+A2Y2+...+A30Y30 и еще раз но t=A1Z1+A2Z2

A# - константы которые я найду

X1- исходные данные (процент побед, нанесенный урон и т.д.)

Y# - цифры полученные при первых 30 вычислениях

Z# - цифры полученные при последних двух вычислениях

в итоге получаем шанс на победу в процентах

Как мне кажется произвести эти вычисления не будет слишком трудоемким а если вычисления происходят локально, как я предпологаю, то передавать ничего не надо

 

На счет сбора данных, я сам могу поиграть с сохранением лога, и друзей тоже попрошу. Для обучения вначале лучше использовать небольшое количество примеров, т.к. операций для вычисления коэффициентов A# на порядок больше те которые нужны для расчета шанса.

 

так что если объем вычислений не слишком большой когда будет время и желание распишите пожалуйста что обозначают переменные =)

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зачем мне объяснять про JSON и unixtime? насколько я понял в лог идет массив данных для всех игроков название переменной-значение, мне просто нужно знать что обозначают эти переменные, а данные я уже сам нибудь обработаю.

В том-то и дело, что там не массив, а иерархия. Поэтому нужно все-таки знать JSON, чтобы понимать чем одна "e" отличается от другой. Да и без этого не получится нормально загрузить данные в среду для анализа (будь то DB или Excel).

 

Про передачу данных:

Насколько я сейчас понимаю сейчас расчет шансов на победу проводится локально по формулам которые описаны в первом топике.

В случае если у меня все получится то формулы будут посложнее.

В лучшем случае:

30 раз нужно будет просчитать функцию вида f(t)=1/(1+exp(-t)), где t=A1X1+A2X2+...+AnXn) и еще 2 раза где t=A1Y1+A2Y2+...+A30Y30 и еще раз но t=A1Z1+A2Z2

A# - константы которые я найду

X1- исходные данные (процент побед, нанесенный урон и т.д.)

Y# - цифры полученные при первых 30 вычислениях

Z# - цифры полученные при последних двух вычислениях

в итоге получаем шанс на победу в процентах

Как мне кажется произвести эти вычисления не будет слишком трудоемким а если вычисления происходят локально, как я предпологаю, то передавать ничего не надо

Угу, если так, то действительно проблем с расчетом быть не должно. Самая большая сложность будет если придется передавать дополнительные данные с сервера.

 

На счет сбора данных, я сам могу поиграть с сохранением лога, и друзей тоже попрошу. Для обучения вначале лучше использовать небольшое количество примеров, т.к. операций для вычисления коэффициентов A# на порядок больше те которые нужны для расчета шанса.

Ок. Если надо будет, можно тут клич кинуть, думаю народ закидает примерами.

 

так что если объем вычислений не слишком большой когда будет время и желание распишите пожалуйста что обозначают переменные =)

Постараюсь.

 

Кстати, result - это результаты боя, которые отображаются в окне статистики боя, можешь попробовать сам подобрать значения.

Edited by sirmax

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В том-то и дело, что там не массив, а иерархия. Поэтому нужно все-таки знать JSON, чтобы понимать чем одна "e" отличается от другой. Да и без этого не получится нормально загрузить данные в среду для анализа (будь то DB или Excel).

Вот поэтому я и не люблю ООП, зачем иерархии когда можно все в один большой массив запихнуть =).

Если все записи стандартные то я скорее всего напишу простенькую прогу в турбопаскале которая это все как стринг обработает и порежет на мелкие кусочки (заранее извиняюсь если вы предпочитаете ООП, и от того что я собираюсь сделать ваш мозг скручивается в агонии))))))

Работать я буду в Octave (бесплатный аналог Matlab) и уже нашел для него модуль для чтения и записи файлов в JSON, но надо будет сначала потестить, если получится то не нужно будет это все как стринг распиливать.

 

 

Угу, если так, то действительно проблем с расчетом быть не должно. Самая большая сложность будет если придется передавать дополнительные данные с сервера.

Единственное возможное усложнение это еще дополнительные расчеты того-же вида.

 

Постараюсь.

Спасибо, буду ждать. а пока буду разбираться с JSON)

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Hi guys,

 

 

I have 16'700 wotreplay files (17 GB) to analyze. They are all version 8.1. I used the WOT Replays Manager (http://forum.worldoftanks.eu/index.php?/topic/105787-wot-replays-manager-v010-enggerruczepl/) to export the data to Excel, but that software has its limitation. I've already contacted its author, SergAxt (http://worldoftanks.eu/community/accounts/503033982-SergAxt/) to help him improve it, but if you have a better solution for this conversion, please let me know.

 

I think it would be great to publish an excel which demonstrates how precise your current algorithms are and it would make possible to test any algorithms in Excel to improve the result.

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2. Per-vehicle (по танку):

Td = (Tmax + Tmin) / 2 - TK = E * (1 + Rt - AVG_GWR) * (1 + 0.25 * Td)Ka = sum(K_ally)Ke = sum(K_enemy)W = Ka / (Ka + Ke) * 100%P = 50% + (W - 50%) * 51) if P > 95% then Р = 95%2) if P < 5% then P = 5%

 

Sirmax, а как сейчас реализовано в данной формуле значение Rt (рейтинг игрока по танку)? Он равен teff? Или это тупо % побед?

И еще вопрос-предложение. Может быть стоит в текущей реализации формулы расчета шансов победы по танку применять подход по нормализации количества боев аналогично применяемому в общей формуле расчета? 

Что-то типо такого, аналогичного общей формуле:

if B < 1000, Bn = (B - 200) / 1000

else Bn = 0.8 + (B - 1000) / 1000

 

Хотя возможно даже стоит не 1000 боев брать, а меньше 500 например и вычитать 100 необходимых на выведение из стока.

 

Да и еще вопрос по общей формуле:

else Bn = 0.8 + (B - 10000) / 100000 - деленное на сто тысяч???

 

Где бы почить тему, когда обсуждались данные формулы? Что-то я не нахожу.

 

Надо бы наверно данные формулы проинвентаризировать:) Народ, подключайтесь:) 

Edited by TurinDeNar

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Обсуждение умерло вместе со старым форумом.

Предлагаю не привязываться к этим формулам, а сделать новые.

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